12 Dec Weiss’ cryptocurrency forecast in 2019 and beyond
Martin Weiss introduced Juan Villaverde, Architect of Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings and Publications Editor and several guests. Weiss set the tone by recounting that bitcoin had been through four previous bear cycles with experts calling its demise. Each time, bitcoin responded by rising sharply, with an average increase of 6,300%.
Now it’s down again by 70% and the key question is where does it go from here?
Villaverde, responded to the predictions of the demise of bitcoin by saying the critics are wrong again. “Bitcoin will rise again, just like it did before. The fundamentals are getting stronger every day. We’ve seen a lot of improvement on the adoption side of the industry throughout 2018 and that almost guarantees we will see a bull market again, and bitcoin will make all-time highs again,” he said.
In the 2014 down-market and during the consolidation in 2015, the bitcoin market simply went sideways, he said.
“Starting in late 2015, going all the way through December 2017, we had one of the biggest bull markets ever in crypto’s history,” Villaverde said.
Then the market algorithms, said the peak had been reached and the Weiss group predicted it was time to exit bitcoin, which proved accurate. At the time, Weiss said, “we gave bitcoin a C+ rating and that’s one of the reasons why. It was definitely not the time to buy.”
Villaverde said he does not expect to see a similar bull run in bitcoin this time for several reasons. “Bitcoin is now over 10 years old, and every time it goes up a little less,” he said. “This is simply the result of increasing liquidity, increasing adoption, which makes prices more stable and were expecting that in the next bull market.”
He said he does not expect bitcoin to go up 100 to one, but it could go up 20 or 30 to one.
How will bitcoin be used?
Villaverde said bitcoin initially was seen as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system, but that is not how people are using it. People are now seeing it more as a store of value.
He believes that will help strengthen the price of bitcoin because if more people start using a store of value, price will naturally arise because supply is very limited. “It’s just like gold, just digital.”
Where are altcoins going?
Historically, Weiss said altcoins have risen more than bitcoin. He asked where they are likely to go?
Villaverde said altcoins are typically more obscure and tend to go up higher by several orders of magnitude as a result. He said that’s why has prediction model sometimes rotates into altcoins because it sees them as a strong potential investment gain.
“Every bull market in bitcoin sees a select number of altcoins go up a lot more than bitcoin,” he said, and this has happened in every previous bitcoin bull market.
The altcoins that will increase the most are those that had significant value to the marketplace rather than copycats. In effect, they are helping to build the “new internet.” The other important use case is in finance where Stellar and XRP are helping to solve some of bitcoin’s issues as a payment medium.
XRP is trying to disrupt and compete with SWIFT as the global banking payments network.
Other altcoins with potential
Weiss asked which other altcoins have potential for strong market growth.
“If I had to name three that our model thinks are the best right now, they are EOS, Cardano and Holochain,” Villaverde predicted, “because they have been designed to run and host distributed applications, and they’re pretty good at it.”
The challenge of security
Weiss pointed to the half-billion accounts compromised at Marriott Hotels International recently, and many other companies who are desperate for the security of blockchain and how this may impact the value of cryptocurrencies.
Villaverde reminded the audience that distributed ledger technology in cryptocurrency are two different things. Blockchain can be used to secure the databases of companies, but they will still be privately owned and there’s really no cryptocurrency attached to them. Weiss said blockchain technology by itself will not drive up the price of cryptocurrencies.
Which altcoins are not a good investment?
In his opinion, Villaverde was bearish on Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV and Litecoin because they do not bring anything fundamentally new to the marketplace. “They are probably going to slowly fade away because they are trying to become a store of value like bitcoin. It’s hard to do that and there’s already bitcoin for that, so there’s really no use case for them.”
New, non-blockchain projects
Two projects that are not well-known, but have potential, are Hedera Hashgraph and Holochain. “They are not blockchain, but they are distributed ledgers which is why we prefer the term DLT,” Villaverde said.
These new technologies do things differently than blockchain, but they appear much better suited to become the new layer of trust for the internet according to Villaverde. As a result, he believes the new technologies have the potential to increase in value more than other cryptocurrencies.
Fearless forecast recap
Following is a quick recap of the webinar forecast for cryptocurrencies in 2019:
Forecast 1: Bitcoin will increasingly be used more as a store of value similar to gold.
Forecast 2: Bitcoin will rise up again and had four all-time highs, giving you gains as much as 30 to one.
Forecast 3: Select altcoins will rise from obscurity and could rise as much as 20 times their previous all-time highs.
Forecast 4: A select group of cryptocurrencies like EOS, Cardano and Holochain will build a new kind of internet and virtual economies of the future.
Forecast 5: Another select group of cryptocurrencies like Ripple’s XRP and Stellar will disrupt and transform the world of banking.
Forecast 6: The technology behind cryptos will be adopted by corporations and governments to protect the security of their giant databases.
Forecast 7: There are a number of me-too coins currently in the top 10 by market cap, and they will fade away including Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV and Litecoin.
Forecast 8: Holochain and Hedera will burst onto the scene and rocket to the top 10 by market cap.
You can listen to the entire Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings webinar here.