21 Nov Tick tock: Analyst Tom Lee sticks to $15K year-end bitcoin prediction
The steep decline in bitcoin market value to well below $4600 hasn’t prevented Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder and analyst Tom Lee from predicting a $15,000 year-end Bitcoin value.
In a little more than five weeks, we’ll know if he’s right on his prediction.
In a CNBC ‘Squawk Box’ interview, Lee said despite the recent 30% or more steep drop in bitcoin value he still sees it an opportunity for an emerging asset class.”
Earlier predicted $25K bitcoin at year-end
Throughout the year, Lee and his team of analysts steadfastly predicted $25,000 bitcoin by year-end before readjusting it because of recent market tremors.
“There’s really sort of two players in crypto right now,” Lee said. “There are people who are using it and have wallets and the on-chain wallets haven’t collapsed as much as the speculators’ side which is where people are getting burned absolutely.”
While Lee acknowledged early bitcoin investors are being hurt by recent markets, he points to the next wave of crypto investors which should come from institutions.
“I think you will get it [institutional investment] partly through Bakkt which is launching soon, but part of it’s going to come from regulatory clarity. I think part of that’s underway now,” Lee said.
What’s ahead for bitcoin?
Lee said the past few days of market volatility have definitely been a negative development. He noted that breakeven for bitcoin mining is now around $7000 partly because of the need to maintain higher levels of security.
He acknowledged the steep decline but maintains digital assets will be a reality in the future. “I think that digital assets are going to be relevant in a world where growth is increasingly digital. So, to me bitcoin is a bet on a project where we have 50 million wallets, there are 5 billion Visa cards and so I think the runway is adoption in the future.”
Regulations will help
He said as regulations become clearer and other ways to trade crypto transparently emerge, growth should happen as that helps pave the way for institutions.
Lee noted that despite its early days, bitcoin is now used to move more money today than PayPal. “I think it’s already establishing itself as a market asset.”
“Do I think as a fundamental long-term story that bitcoin is broken? I don’t think so. I mean the price at the moment isn’t confirming fundamentals,” Lee added.
In conversations about bitcoin around the Thanksgiving table, he said it will be a generational argument. “I think there is a lot of young people who will see the case, and I think a lot of people will be wagging their finger.”
Tick tock. Let’s see if Tom Lee is right by Dec 31.