26 Nov Civic CEO says crypto has long, dark winter ahead
Civic CEO Vinny Lingham predicted a “long, dark winter ahead for cryptocurrency” during an interview with CNBC.
In markets today, bitcoin traded as low as $3679 for the first time since August 2017, before recovering slightly during a volatile week with steady downward trends through the weekend and starting the new week.
New lows may still be ahead
CNBC said Morgan Creek Digital says there is still room for bitcoin to fall further as did Fred Wilson, founder of Union Square Ventures who wrote in his blog post “What bear markets look like”:
“So, while crypto asset prices are down 80-95% in USD terms over the last year, they could and probably will go lower. Amazon was down 80% a year into the post-bubble bear market and it got cut in half again before it made a bottom almost two years after it peaked.
What we have yet to see in crypto land is when they kick you when you are down. And that is certainly coming. Regulators came after the Internet sector in a big way post the bubble and that seems likely to happen in the crypto sector too.”
Lingham says brace for ‘crypto winter’
Speaking on CNBC’s Fast Money program, Lingham predicted tough times ahead for bitcoin in particular during an interview with host Melissa Lee.
“I think it’s going to be range-bound $3K and $6K for the next six months,” Lingham said. “If we don’t get out of this crypto bear market cycle in the next 3 to 6 months, that $3000 level could build.”
Lingham pointed to his February 2018 blog post warning about the danger of a bitcoin bubble. Much to the chagrin of many in the cryptocurrency community.
He said you don’t have an investment grade asset with this kind of volatility and institutional investors will be wary in his opinion.
Could blockchain development be impacted by a bitcoin blowout?
Lee asked if a bitcoin downturn could negatively impact blockchain development.
“I think it holds it, but it definitely slows it [development] down. I think the real issue is the narrative that bitcoin is a store of value. And so, people buying in at $15,000 to $20,000 believe that I think that’s proven not to be true,” Lingham said.
In the short-term, he said retail investors will be scared away and the volatility has scared away the institutional investors as well. “It’s kind of a risky scenario at this point. For me, it’s too risky at this point,” he added. “Obviously, high risk carries high rewards. If it does turn, this could be a great time to buy but I think the risks really are on the upside.”
Fred Wilson may still have the best perspective. “I think some crypto asset (and possibly a number of crypto assets) will have a price chart like Amazon’s current one in 18 years. But we will have to do what Amazon did, hunker down and build value and survive, for quite a while to get there. And I think things will get worse before they get better,” he added.
You can view the full CNBC interview here.