16 Feb A bitcoin up-rising and $20K by July?
Are markets getting ready for a bitcoin bull market replay of 2017 by mid-summer? Some analysts think so, according to TheStreet.com.
In a Feb 15 note to investors, Fundstrat Global Advisors analyst and bitcoin bull Thomas Lee, says the signs are building positively for a price rally.
V-shaped bitcoin “bottoms”
He wrote that 73% of bitcoin bottoms are “V-shaped” which could signal a rally following the recent price trough based on similar moves in the 22 previous bitcoin corrections of more than 20% since 2010.
Bitcoin’s 70% fall from $20,000 in December to as low as $5,600 in January was the fifth most serious decline and the ninth longest. Lee says it’s hardly surprising that investors’ confidence was battered as a result.
Recoveries take longer than declines
Lee notes recoveries take 1.7 times longer than declines, suggesting that it will take 85 days or more to recover lost value.
That puts a recovery to $20,000 in a July timeframe, he wrote:
“In terms of speed and magnitude, this most recent 70% is probably most analogous to the 70% decline from 4/9/13 to 7/5/13 (87 days) which was followed by a 147-day rally (+1,484%, 16X!!!).”
Lee says the biggest risk is that investor confidence has remained completely undermined from the recent bear market, but he makes a strong technical case in his newsletter.
Bitcoin broke through $10,000 this week in trading and Fundstrat predicts it could reach $25,000 by the end of the year.
If Lee’s analysis and predictions are correct, some investors will be smiling.